Tuesday, April 24, 2007

The sky is not falling

Major Mike

I love the doom and gloom pseudo-economists and their sky-is-falling mantra, they are great entertainment. But they do a great disservice to a significant portion of the population by screeching about home prices dropping, or home sales slowing. Does this shock anyone? After a red-hot five years of leveraging low-interest rates, the housing market is slowing in response to the interest rate hikes that the Fed has initiated in order to keep inflation under control. Higher interest rates…slower housing sales, possibly rolling back prices.

Anyone who has lived in California recognizes this cycle…it has occurred three or four times since I first lived there in 1979. Hawaii experienced a similar correction of prices in the late 1990’s. It is as predictable as the sun rising tomorrow…as interest rates rise, the market will cool, slowing sales, and possibly lowering prices.

There is no doom and gloom, just a shifting of opportunity. Just as when the stock markets receded significantly, there was opportunity to pick up some bargains and ride the wave of recovery over the last couple of years.

Buy low…sell high, and keep an eye out for the opportunities that allow you to do so…such as a slowing in housing sales or a slight dip in housing prices. Pay no attention to the alarmists behind the curtain.

1 comment:

Boghie said...

MM,

You are 100% correct.

And something weird might happen... As folks sell their appreciated home asset they will have to invest either in another piece of real estate - or in the equity markets...

Doom and Gloom...

Or, realigning assets...

Uuuggghhhh… Back to that pyramid than again…