Back in June I mocked the Colorado State University Hurricane Forecasting Team for making a prediction of any kind, but now they come back and make another, revised prediction...their second since the season began the First of June. Don't look for the original CNN link...it has been disabled, but this newest prediction now..."forecasts" ...
"...calling for a slightly below-average year, with only five hurricanes instead of the seven previously forecast."
Remember their original "prediction" (forecast...guess...ouijied-induced wag (wild ass guess)...completely unscientific estimate) called for 9 Hurricanes and 17 named storms. Their first, intermediate stab-at-a-revision called for 7 Hurricanes and 12-15 named storms. And now we are down to their hunch of five Hurricanes.
I don't know how much we are spending on Hurricane research in Colorado (does this make sense?), but I don't feel we are getting our monies' worth. They have issued a downward revision of about 50% of their original, flawed "prediction." I am not a statisical guru, but I sense this rate of accuracy likely takes them out of the realm of "credible" and puts them into the milieu of "psychic."
We are halfway through the Hurricane season, and thankfully the CSU tarot card readers have been grossly wrong, but I suspect, rather than packing it in for any more guesses this season, they will be making predictions (guesses, stabs, conjectures) up until November 30th. And then, by God, they might finally get close.
Spare us the publicity grabbing, nonsensical, fallacy-based, faulty, grossly incorrect, predicitions, and find something useful to do with the grant money. At this point the CSU team is simply a bunch of incorrect, snobbish, scientific bores.
If I had their track record, I wouldn't be making predictions... I'd be in seclusion.