Friday, September 01, 2006

Prediction...schmridiction

Major Mike

Back in June I mocked the Colorado State University Hurricane Forecasting Team for making a prediction of any kind, but now they come back and make another, revised prediction...their second since the season began the First of June. Don't look for the original CNN link...it has been disabled, but this newest prediction now..."forecasts" ...

"...calling for a slightly below-average year, with only five hurricanes instead of the seven previously forecast."

Remember their original "prediction" (forecast...guess...ouijied-induced wag (wild ass guess)...completely unscientific estimate) called for 9 Hurricanes and 17 named storms. Their first, intermediate stab-at-a-revision called for 7 Hurricanes and 12-15 named storms. And now we are down to their hunch of five Hurricanes.

I don't know how much we are spending on Hurricane research in Colorado (does this make sense?), but I don't feel we are getting our monies' worth. They have issued a downward revision of about 50% of their original, flawed "prediction." I am not a statisical guru, but I sense this rate of accuracy likely takes them out of the realm of "credible" and puts them into the milieu of "psychic."

We are halfway through the Hurricane season, and thankfully the CSU tarot card readers have been grossly wrong, but I suspect, rather than packing it in for any more guesses this season, they will be making predictions (guesses, stabs, conjectures) up until November 30th. And then, by God, they might finally get close.

Spare us the publicity grabbing, nonsensical, fallacy-based, faulty, grossly incorrect, predicitions, and find something useful to do with the grant money. At this point the CSU team is simply a bunch of incorrect, snobbish, scientific bores.

If I had their track record, I wouldn't be making predictions... I'd be in seclusion.

8 comments:

Mr.Atos said...

I was listening to Laura I. this morning as she played clips of Gore speaking at the MTV musuck awards. The man actual showed these twenty-nothing kids diagrams of melting glaciers at the awards show, for crying out loud. His predictions of doom are as wacked out as these CSU predictions, despite using prestidigitation as his methodology. Take this recent conversation with my neighbor for example. He notes that the ocean levels have risen some 3/4's of an inch in the last twenty years and glacier XJ57-Z has receeed some twenty feet. Really, I said. Well, sea levels have risen 300 feet in the last 10,000 years, and North America glaciers have receeded some 2000 miles... all without the help of the internal combustion engine.

Abracapocus!

dueler88 said...

Warming-Schmarming.

But wait, Mike: it's gonna be HOT HOT HOT again this weekend in Portland. If 90 degrees-plus weather in August in Portland ain't a sign of global warming, I don't know WHAT is!

dueler88 said...

September! Sorry. Well, that proves global warming even MORE!

Major Mike said...

I have revised my estimate for the high temperature today at 1500...I now say it will be 91 deg F. I too can be a predictor.

Asses all...why is it we tolerate these kinds of "scientifically based" guesses, let alone give them any creedence...makes me puke. MM

Mr.Atos said...

I signed into yahoo weather yesterday morning to find out how I might dress myself and the kids. The current temperature was 47. The High was to be 81. And the low was to be 56.

You just can't make these things up.

dueler88 said...

OMG LOL!!!!

Mr.Atos said...

Did anybody ever think to ask, why in Neptune's name would anyone take seriously hurricane predictions from a University in Colorado? That makes about as much sense as a Texas Ski School.

Boghie said...

Its hard to grub for gubmint money when the science ain't sexy...

What the adults should have told these libs and 'scientists' is that it is even harder to grub for money when you are routinely wrong...

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