I will continue to back my prediction on 11/6/06 over the next two years, since the Presidential campaign 2008 began in earnest last night.
The Republicans in the House and Senate have squandered their many opportunities because of gutlessness, pandering, and 2008 Presidential aspirations of their own. But, that does not mean all is lost...over the course of the next two years, the Dems will engage themselves in a series of events that will culminate in a DNC National Convention that will make a Mike Tyson fight look like a patty cake session between a couple of snobbish playdaters. Last night's win for the Dems, only revs the engine.
Hillary the self-appointed frontrunner for 2008...from RCP.
"Caution has served Clinton well in the Senate. There, she has listened to the wisdom of Robert Byrd, the longest serving member, who gave her his standard nose-to-the-grindstone tutorial and beamed with avuncular pride as she took it to heart and grandstanded not. On the other hand, she has led not, either. If she is a party leader, it is on the basis of who she is and not what she has done. She has risked little. " (My emphasis)
It is doubtful that her risk aversion has gone un-noticed from within the party, and it is not likely to be rewarded with a a yellow-brick road to Denver or NYC.
John Kerry is not going away quietly, and indeed, he is likely for force all of the Dem candidates out into the open on Iraq much sooner thant they would like...
"This is our chance to take the power to lead America out of the Bush Republicans' hands. Winning means raising the minimum wage. Winning means moving towards health care for all, starting with every child in America. Winning means forcing an end to the disastrous war in Iraq, and getting our heroes home. "
I am not sure that the Dems want their Cut-and-Run exit strategy for Iraq illuminated quite so early, and quite so brightly.
Kos and his crowd are not going to go quietly into the night. Check this comment stream from the Kos Kidz...
"No question about it. We're mandated all to heck."
"Americans last night showed they despise conservatism. And they showed they want a better way - a way that absolutely, without any doubt, includes liberalism."
"Who the hell is listening at this point? They are irrelevant. It's full spead AHEAD time!"
..."We're madated all to heck"...they are not just talking about the left...they are talking about the left and themselves...the far left. And I am glad that I don't have to break the news to them that the Party is now going to attempt to move to the right a bit. They won't be having any part of that...they believe the mandate is theirs...not just for moderate Dems.
The Michael Steele effect...African-American candidates are not going to be dictated to by the Dem party any longer. Had the Dems had a true partnership with their African-American constituents, they could have put forward a black candidate in MD, and had another black Senator. Frustration with the Dem Party, by the black rank-and-file spilled over when Steele received signifcant support from black political leaders. Had the Dems put up a black candidate, he likely would have won...but as usual, the African-American caucus is carrying their water, and getting scraps in return. They will continue to fight for a return on their 50 year investment.
And...Iraq. They now own 2/3 of that problem. Good luck getting that booger off your finger without getting any on ya.
Keep an eye out for future updates...I am certain that these themes will continue until the Dems explode at their Convention...there will certainly will be other pressures on the Dems...and I'll bring them to you over the next twenty-two months.
© Michael McBride 2006